Gasoline Prices

UPDATED 2020 PRICES

PETROL PRICES

Roughly 35% of gasoline used is for driving to and from work. So, as the US workers trickle back to their jobs, May gasoline demand is expected to increase by 1.234 million b/d over April. In addition to supportive data on the US front, news of more refinery run rate cuts emerged. ExxonMobil’s 592,000 b/d Singapore refinery for example, was heard to have idled one of its CDUs for maintenance for about a month, with the refinery’s run rates lowered to around 60%.

Exxon joins Shell’s Pulau Bukom refinery which was heard to have idled its 500,000 b/d facility for scheduled maintenance until May 27. Also in Asia, Pertamina’s 260,000 b/d Balikpapan refinery, underwent a complete shutdown for planned works earlier this week, sources said. The state-owned oil and gas company has also cut rates at its 133,700 b/d Plaju refinery.

Reflecting the slightly improved fundamentals, the front month FOB Singapore 92 RON gasoline crack against Brent swap was pegged between minus 20 cents/b and minus 30 cents/b, according to indications from brokers early Friday. This is the highest it has been since March 13, when it was seen at plus 37 cents/b.

At the close of Asian trade Wednesday, the paper crack was assessed at minus $1.95/b. The Singapore market was closed on Thursday for the Vesak Day holiday. Likewise, the physical complex traced the rebound in the derivatives market, albeit still staying firmly in the red.

The FOB Singapore 92 RON gasoline crack against front month ICE Brent crude futures was pegged notionally at a range of minus $2.40–minus $2.50/b at 0230 GMT Friday, around a 41.7% rebound from the minus $4.20/b that was assessed at 0830 GMT close of Asian trade Wednesday.

India’s private refiner Nayara, was noted offering between 58,000 – 60,000 mt of 92 RON gasoline, with RVP of max 62 kPa and max 50ppm sulfur, for loading over May 24-28 from Vadinar. Likewise, state-owned Bharat Petroleum Corp. Ltd., India was also heard offering up to 50,000 mt of 102 reformate, in two separate parcels, for delivery/loading over May 5-15 from Mumbai.
Both tenders close on April 30, though bids on Nayara’s tender will be valid until the end of day, while bids on BPCL’s tender has next-day validity, according to the respective tender documents. Also in Asia, Chinese state-run CNOOC was noted offering up to 38,000 mt of 92 RON gasoline for loading over May 30-31 from the Huizhou Dagang Terminal. CNOOC’s tender closes on April 30, with same day validity.
In the Middle East, Egypt’s Egyptian General Petroleum Corporation was heard to be offering one cargo of up to 33,0 mt of 95 RON gasoline for loading over May 17-19 from Suez via spot tender that closes on May 4, with validity until May 8.
Egyptian refiners EGPC and Midor, who are typical importers of gasoline, have flipped to exporting gasoline cargoes since early April, as domestic demand has been severely crippled due to the coronavirus pandemic, Platts previously reported.
On the supply front, China’s Ministry of Commerce allocated a second round of oil product export quotas, at 24.63 million mt, under the general trade route to five state- owned oil companies, sources with knowledge of the matter said late Tuesday.
As was the case with the first round allocation under general trade, MOFCOM did not give a quota breakdown by products, allowing the quota holders to divide up their own quotas into different products according to their short-term plans.
With the two rounds of allocation, the five state-owned companies are now allowed to export up to 52.63 million mt of oil products in 2020, mainly gasoline, jet fuel and some smaller volume of LNG, under both generaland processing trade routes. With the new quotas, state-owned refiners have around 37.37 million MT of quotas available for April onward.

 

 

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China’s current Gasoline Fuel Spot Prices in the second week of May 2020 were at 4535.17 RMB per MT.

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At the below chart you can see the Petrol Consumer Prices in India, the last update is 08.05.2020.

 

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The below chart shows the Diesel Fuel Consumer Prices in Russia, the last update is 04.05.2020.

 

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At the below chart you can see the Gasoline Spot Prices in USA, the last update is 04.05.2020.

GASOLINE PRICES | THE YEAR 2020

SINGAPORE GASOLINE PRICES:

 

FOB Singapore ($/Barrel)				Premium / Discount
	Price	Mid	Change	Price	Mid	Change
Gasoline 97 unleaded	33.53–33.57	33.550	+0.160	11.42/11.46	11.440	+0.650
Gasoline 95 unleaded	32.18–32.22	32.200	0.000	10.07/10.11	10.090	+0.490
Gasoline 95 unleaded					-0.280 **	+0.250
Gasoline 92 unleaded	29.05–29.09	29.070	-0.800	6.94/6.98	6.960	-0.310
Gasoline 92 unleaded				-1.52/-1.48	-1.500	-0.500
Gasoline 91 unleaded		29.870	-0.650		-0.700	-0.350

** Differential to FOB Singapore gasoline 95 unleaded

MIDDLE EAST GASOLINE PRICES:

FOB Arab Gulf ($/Barrel)				Premium / Discount
	Price	Mid	Change	Price	Mid	Change
Gasoline 95 unleaded	27.13–27.17	27.150	+1.570	2.88/2.92	2.900	-0.200
Gasoline 95 unleaded CFR				5.08/5.12	5.100
Gasoline 92 unleaded		24.020	+0.770		2.400	-0.200

 

MIDDLE EAST GASOLINE PRICES:

FOB Fujairah ($/Barrel)			MOPAG Strip
	Mid	Change	Mid	Change
Gasoline 95 unleaded	30.830	+1.030	27.930	+1.230

 

SOUTH CHINA/ HONG KONG GASOLINE PRICES:

South China ($/MT)				Premium / Discount to MOPS ($/barrel)
	Price	Mid	Change	Price	Mid	Change
Gasoline 90 unleaded	208.00–212.00	210.000	-8.500
Gasoline 90 unleaded	231.25–235.25	233.250	-5.250

 

JAPAN GASOLINE PRICES:

 

FOB Japan ($/Barrel)			Premium / Discount
	Price	Change	Price	Change
Gasoline 91-92 unleaded	33.98–34.02	-1.310
Gasoline 95 unleaded	37.11–37.15	-0.510

 

SOUTH KOREA GASOLINE PRICES:

FOB Korea ($/Barrel)			Premium / Discount
	Price	Change	Price	Change
Gasoline 95 unleaded	32.05–32.09	+0.020

 

WEST INDIA GASOLINE PRICES:

FOB India ($/MT)			FOB India ($/Barrel)
	Price	Change	Price	Change
Gasoline (92 RON)	219.170	+1.860	25.780	+0.210
Gasoline (95 RON)	242.550	+8.660	28.880	+1.040

 

AUSTRALIA GASOLINE PRICES:

C+F Australia ($/Barrel)
	Price	Mid	Change
Gasoline 92	35.64–35.68	35.660	-1.500
Gasoline 95	38.77–38.81	38.790	-0.700

GASOLINE PRICES | THE YEAR 2020

SOUTH AFRICA GASOLINE PRICES:

CFR South Africa ($/Barrel)
	Price	Change
Gasoline 95 unleaded	35.696	-1.624

GASOLINE PRICES | THE YEAR 2020

MEDITERRANEAN GASOLINE PRICES:

FOB Italy ($/MT)				CIF (Genova / Lavera)
	Price	Mid	Change	Price	Mid	Change
Premium unleaded 10ppm	233.75–234.25	234.000	-14.250	241.75–242.25	242.000	-16.000

 

NORTHWEST EUROPE GASOLINE CARGO PRICES:

CIF Basis ARA ($/MT)				FOB NWE ($/MT)
	Price	Mid	Change	Price	Mid	Change
Gasoline 10ppm	262.25–262.75	262.500	-8.500

 

NORTHWEST EUROPE GASOLINE BARGES PRICES:

FOB Rotterdam
	Price	Mid	Change
Eurobob	240.00–240.50	240.250	-8.500
E10 Eurobob		254.250	– 9.750
Unleaded 98	310.00–310.50	310.250	-8.500
Premium Unleaded	257.75–258.25	258.000	-8.500

GASOLINE PRICES | THE YEAR 2020

US WEST COAST PIPELINE:

 

Los Angeles (¢/gal)				San Francisco (¢/gal)
	Price	Mid	Change	Price	Mid	Change
Unleaded 84	98.80–98.90	98.850	-1.570	97.80–97.90	97.850	-0.570
Premium 90	109.30–109.40	109.350	-1.570	108.30–108.40	108.350	-0.570
CARBOB	98.80–98.90	98.850	-1.570	97.80–97.90	97.850	-0.570
CARBOB Premium	120.30–120.40	120.35	+9.430	119.30–119.40	119.350	+10.430

 

Seattle (¢/gal)				Portland (¢/gal)
	Price	Mid	Change	Price	Mid	Change
Unleaded 84	94.30–94.40	94.350	-0.570	94.30–94.40	94.350	-0.570
Premium 90	124.30–124.40	124.350	-0.570	124.30–124.40	124.350	-0.570

DIFFERENTIAL TO NIMEX:

Premium to NYMEX Gasoline Settlement
	Price	Mid	Change
CARBOB	6.95/7.05	7.000	-1.000
CARBOB paper 1st month*	5.45/5.55	5.500	0.000
CARBOB paper 2nd month*	5.50/5.55	5.500	0.000

 

NORTHWEST EUROPE DIESEL FUEL CARGO PRICES:

CIF Basis ARA ($/MT)				FOB NWE ($/MT)
	Price	Mid	Change	Price	Mid	Change
10 ppm ULSD	263.25-263.75	263.500	-20.250	252.50-253.00	252.750	-20.250
Gasoil 0.1%	254.00-254.50	254.250	-16.500	239.00-239.50	239.250	-16.500
Diesel 10 ppm NWE	265.00-265.50	265.250	-20.250	254.00-254.50	254.250	-20.250
Diesel 10 ppm UK	266.25-266.75	266.500	-20.250

 

NORTHWEST EUROPE DIESEL FUEL BARGES PRICES:

FOB Rotterdam
	Price	Mid	Change
Gasoil 50 ppm	261.50-262.00	261.750	-16.000
Gasoil 0.1%	242.50-243.00	242.750	-19.500
Gasoil 10 ppm	264.00-264.50	264.250	-16.750

DIESEL FUEL PRICE TRENDS

Diesel Fuel Outlook

The global Diesel market is valued at 931500 million USD in 2020 is expected to reach 1246400 million USD by the end of 2026, growing at a CAGR of 4.2% during 2021-2026.

The share of diesel fuel in the transportation sector is expected to grow up to 32–35 percent by 2025 owing to improved economic growth and trade in the emerging and developing nations, leading to significant growth of the commercial transportation sector. APAC has the largest diesel consumption followed by Europe and North America. Buyers at present, have relatively higher bargaining power in the diesel fuel market.

Having high energy density per unit volume, diesel is preferred in markets such as commercial heavy-duty vehicles, power generation, and in various other industrial applications for its high energy/thermal efficiency. Growing demand in heavy transport sector especially in emerging economies like China, India, Brazil, and Indonesia drives the demand for diesel fuel

By imposing “Clean Air Zones”, Governments around the world have put some restrictions to drive diesel vehicles. Increasing usage of alternative fuel vehicles, such as Compressed Natural Gas (CNG) and Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) vehicles could hamper the diesel fuel market.

Biofuels procurement intelligence shows that in large volume sourcing, the buyers look for companies that can scale up quickly and can store large inventories. Alternative fuels like CNG, LPG and biofuels do pose a threat, but the level of threat is relatively low as their penetration is slow.

Crude oil prices are the main driver of retail fuel prices in the long-run (months and years). In the short run, exchange rates, tax policy, regulations, supply disruptions, and seasonal factors also play a role but these influences are minor compared to crude oil.

 

Diesel Fuel – Global Industry Outlook

The Global product demand for Diesel is forecasted to reach ~27 Mbpd by 2020.

Global demand for liquid fuel is expected to reach 100 million barrels/day (Mbpd) by 2019 (1.21 percent CAGR). Share of diesel fuel in the transportation sector is expected to grow from 30 – 32percent in 2016 to 32 – 35 percent by 2025. Developing nations’ higher demand for power and the inability of the existing infrastructure to reduce the demand is resulting in the growth of diesel generators industry at ~5 – 6 percent

The growth in demand for diesel will be moderate in North America and Europe but will increase drastically in APAC, accelerated mainly by the increase of commercial vehicles, especially in India and other South Asian Countries

Increasing concerns over carbon dioxide emissions and fuel efficiency has resulted in stricter regulation on fuels. Ability of the diesel fuel to reduce emissions as well as improve fuel efficiency is resulting in its higher demand. According to diesel intelligence, the demand for Diesel by end-use industries in 2018 was Road 60%, Residential/Commercial/Agriculture 15%, Electricity Generation 8%, Rail and Domestic Waterways 5%, Marine Bunkers 4%, and Other Industry.

Buyer is better placed during negotiations mainly because of supply exceeding the demand volumes in the diesel market, which has had an impact on the price of diesel. Prices have dipped at double digits over the last few years.

 

Diesel Fuel – North America Market Outlook

The diesel demand forecast suggests that market demand in the North American region is estimated to be 4.4 million barrels/day in 2018. The US and Canada together had a demand of 4.51 mb/d.

Every 10 percent change in oil prices leads to about 3 percent change in fuel prices in Europe and about 7 percent change in the U.S. In principle, the higher the fuel taxes, the smaller the change in fuel prices for a given change in oil prices. These numbers are the same for gasoline and diesel. So, if you are in a country with high fuel prices (see the global rankings for gasoline and diesel), an increase/decrease in oil prices from, say, 60 to 70 USD per barrel would lead to about 5 percent increase/decrease in fuel prices. If you are in a country with about average fuel prices, the change would be double – about 10 percent. If you are in a country with low fuel prices, that usually means that the government regulates or subsidizes prices. Then, oil prices have less direct impact but eventually policies adjust and fuel prices come in line with the crude oil prices.