Diesel Fuel Prices

UPDATED 2020 PRICES

DIESEL FUEL PRICES | ULSD / HIGH SULFUR

The move to extend a lockdown over India’s 1.3 billion people comes as the country battles to contain the spread of COVID-19, but which has resulted in domestic gasoil demand being eroded as most rail and road transportation has been banned, with the exception of the transportation of essential goods and services.

This has been seen most clearly in latest data released from India’s Petroleum Planning and Analysis Cell, or PPAC, which showed that gasoil consumption stood at a three- and-half-year low at 5,65 million mt in March. The last time gasoil consumption levels in India were any lower was in September 2016, when it was reported at 5.21 million mt, PPAC historical data showed. The data also showed that consumption levels for March slumped 21.1% on the month, and down 24.2% on the year.

India’s shaky demand for gasoil, as well as plentiful surplus volumes being pushed into the spot market, has had a negative impact on the Asian gasoil market.

At 0830 GMT close Monday, the cash differential for the benchmark Asian ULSD grade touched a fresh record low at minus $2.59/b to the Mean of Platts Singapore gasoil assessments, FOB Singapore.

Asian gasoil market participants said the news in recent days spelled trouble ahead for the middle distillate, which has so far managed to cling on to some strength due to its flexibility of use in different sectors of the economy.

Malaysia extended lockdowns, and now India also. Still, the deepening glut of gasoil supplies and persistently weak demand has pushed the contango structure in the Asian gasoil swaps market deeper into negative terrain, which has made storage economics more viable, traders said.

At 0700 GMT Tuesday, the prompt balance April/May gasoil time spread was pegged at minus $2.42/b, according to industry sources.

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China’s current Diesel Fuel Spot Prices in the last week of April 2020 were at 5119.67 RMB per MT.

 

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At the below chart you can see the Diesel Fuel Consumer Prices in India, the last update is 31.03.2020.

 

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The below chart shows the Diesel Fuel Consumer Prices in Russia, the last update is 27.04.2020.

 

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At the below chart you can see the Ultra Low Sulfur Diesel Fuel , Spot Prices in USA, the last update is 27.04.2020.

DIESEL FUEL PRICES | THE YEAR 2020

 

 

SINGAPORE DIESEL FUEL PRICES:

 

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SOUTH CHINA/ HONG KONG DIESEL FUEL PRICES:

 

JAPAN DIESEL FUEL PRICES:

 

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WEST INDIA DIESEL FUEL PRICES:

 

AUSTRALIA DIESEL FUEL PRICES:

 

SOUTH AFRICA DIESEL FUEL PRICES:

 

MEDITERRANEAN DIESEL FUEL PRICES:

NORTHWEST EUROPE DIESEL FUEL CARGO PRICES:

NORTHWEST EUROPE DIESEL FUEL BARGES PRICES:

 

US WEST COAST PIPELINE:

DIFFERENTIAL TO NIMEX:

 

NORTHWEST EUROPE DIESEL FUEL CARGO PRICES:

 

NORTHWEST EUROPE DIESEL FUEL BARGES PRICES:

DIESEL FUEL PRICE TRENDS

Diesel Fuel Outlook

The global Diesel market is valued at 931500 million USD in 2020 is expected to reach 1246400 million USD by the end of 2026, growing at a CAGR of 4.2% during 2021-2026.

The share of diesel fuel in the transportation sector is expected to grow up to 32–35 percent by 2025 owing to improved economic growth and trade in the emerging and developing nations, leading to significant growth of the commercial transportation sector. APAC has the largest diesel consumption followed by Europe and North America. Buyers at present, have relatively higher bargaining power in the diesel fuel market.

Having high energy density per unit volume, diesel is preferred in markets such as commercial heavy-duty vehicles, power generation, and in various other industrial applications for its high energy/thermal efficiency. Growing demand in heavy transport sector especially in emerging economies like China, India, Brazil, and Indonesia drives the demand for diesel fuel

By imposing “Clean Air Zones”, Governments around the world have put some restrictions to drive diesel vehicles. Increasing usage of alternative fuel vehicles, such as Compressed Natural Gas (CNG) and Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) vehicles could hamper the diesel fuel market.

Biofuels procurement intelligence shows that in large volume sourcing, the buyers look for companies that can scale up quickly and can store large inventories. Alternative fuels like CNG, LPG and biofuels do pose a threat, but the level of threat is relatively low as their penetration is slow.

Crude oil prices are the main driver of retail fuel prices in the long-run (months and years). In the short run, exchange rates, tax policy, regulations, supply disruptions, and seasonal factors also play a role but these influences are minor compared to crude oil.

 

Diesel Fuel – Global Industry Outlook

The Global product demand for Diesel is forecasted to reach ~27 Mbpd by 2020.

Global demand for liquid fuel is expected to reach 100 million barrels/day (Mbpd) by 2019 (1.21 percent CAGR). Share of diesel fuel in the transportation sector is expected to grow from 30 – 32percent in 2016 to 32 – 35 percent by 2025. Developing nations’ higher demand for power and the inability of the existing infrastructure to reduce the demand is resulting in the growth of diesel generators industry at ~5 – 6 percent

The growth in demand for diesel will be moderate in North America and Europe but will increase drastically in APAC, accelerated mainly by the increase of commercial vehicles, especially in India and other South Asian Countries

Increasing concerns over carbon dioxide emissions and fuel efficiency has resulted in stricter regulation on fuels. Ability of the diesel fuel to reduce emissions as well as improve fuel efficiency is resulting in its higher demand. According to diesel intelligence, the demand for Diesel by end-use industries in 2018 was Road 60%, Residential/Commercial/Agriculture 15%, Electricity Generation 8%, Rail and Domestic Waterways 5%, Marine Bunkers 4%, and Other Industry.

Buyer is better placed during negotiations mainly because of supply exceeding the demand volumes in the diesel market, which has had an impact on the price of diesel. Prices have dipped at double digits over the last few years.

 

Diesel Fuel – North America Market Outlook

The diesel demand forecast suggests that market demand in the North American region is estimated to be 4.4 million barrels/day in 2018. The US and Canada together had a demand of 4.51 mb/d.

Every 10 percent change in oil prices leads to about 3 percent change in fuel prices in Europe and about 7 percent change in the U.S. In principle, the higher the fuel taxes, the smaller the change in fuel prices for a given change in oil prices. These numbers are the same for gasoline and diesel. So, if you are in a country with high fuel prices (see the global rankings for gasoline and diesel), an increase/decrease in oil prices from, say, 60 to 70 USD per barrel would lead to about 5 percent increase/decrease in fuel prices. If you are in a country with about average fuel prices, the change would be double – about 10 percent. If you are in a country with low fuel prices, that usually means that the government regulates or subsidizes prices. Then, oil prices have less direct impact but eventually policies adjust and fuel prices come in line with the crude oil prices.